Preoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy Journal Article


Authors: Stephenson, A. J.; Scardino, P. T.; Eastham, J. A.; Bianco, F. J. Jr; Dotan, Z. A.; Fearn, P. A.; Kattan, M. W.
Article Title: Preoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy
Abstract: An existing preoperative nomogram predicts the probability of prostate cancer recurrence, defined by prostate-specific antigen (PSA), at 5 years after radical prostatectomy based on clinical stage, serum PSA, and biopsy Gleason grade. In an updated and enhanced nomogram, we have extended the predictions to 10 years, added the prognostic information of systematic biopsy results, and enabled the predictions to be adjusted for the year of surgery. Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1978 patients treated by two high-volume surgeons from our institution. The nomogram was externally validated on an independent cohort of 1545 patients with a concordance index of 0.79 and was well calibrated with respect to observed outcome. The inclusion of the number of positive and negative biopsy cores enhanced the predictive accuracy of the model. Thus, a new preoperative nomogram provides robust predictions of prostate cancer recurrence up to 10 years after radical prostatectomy. © Copyright 2006 Oxford University Press.
Keywords: controlled study; treatment outcome; aged; disease-free survival; middle aged; major clinical study; disease course; cancer recurrence; postoperative period; disease free survival; recurrence risk; follow up; preoperative evaluation; prostate specific antigen; accuracy; neoplasm recurrence, local; proportional hazards models; cohort analysis; risk factors; pathology; validation study; prediction; risk factor; biopsy; prostate cancer; prostate-specific antigen; prostatic neoplasms; blood; immunology; proportional hazards model; probability; prostatectomy; nomograms; disease progression; tumor recurrence; prostate tumor; prostate biopsy; prediction and forecasting; predictive value of tests; multivariate analysis; nomogram
Journal Title: JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
Volume: 98
Issue: 10
ISSN: 0027-8874
Publisher: Oxford University Press  
Date Published: 2006-05-17
Start Page: 715
End Page: 717
Language: English
DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djj190
PUBMED: 16705126
PROVIDER: scopus
PMCID: PMC2242430
DOI/URL:
Notes: --- - "Cited By (since 1996): 202" - "Export Date: 4 June 2012" - "CODEN: JNCIA" - "Source: Scopus"
Altmetric Score
MSK Authors
  1. Zohar A Dotan
    19 Dotan
  2. Peter T Scardino
    621 Scardino
  3. James Eastham
    426 Eastham
  4. Fernando J Bianco
    72 Bianco
  5. Paul A Fearn
    58 Fearn