Nomogram predicting prostate cancer-specific mortality for men with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy Journal Article


Authors: Brockman, J. A.; Alanee, S.; Vickers, A. J.; Scardino, P. T.; Wood, D. P.; Kibel, A. S.; Lin, D. W.; Bianco, F. J. Jr; Rabah, D. M.; Klein, E. A.; Ciezki, J. P.; Gao, T.; Kattan, M. W.; Stephenson, A. J.
Article Title: Nomogram predicting prostate cancer-specific mortality for men with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy
Abstract: Background The natural history of prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-defined biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after definitive local therapy is highly variable. Validated prediction models for PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) in this population are needed for treatment decision-making and clinical trial design. Objective To develop and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of PCSM from the time of BCR among men with rising PSA levels after radical prostatectomy. Design, setting, and participants Between 1987 and 2011, 2254 men treated by radical prostatectomy at one of five high-volume hospitals experienced BCR, defined as three successive PSA rises (final value >0.2 ng/ml), single PSA >0.4 ng/ml, or use of secondary therapy administered for detectable PSA >0.1 ng/ml. Clinical information and follow-up data were modeled using competing-risk regression analysis to predict PCSM from the time of BCR. Intervention Radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer and subsequent PCa BCR. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis PCSM. Results and limitations The 10-yr PCSM and mortality from competing causes was 19% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16-21%) and 17% (95% CI 14-19%), respectively. A nomogram predicting PCSM for all patients had an internally validated concordance index of 0.774. Inclusion of PSA doubling time (PSADT) in a nomogram based on standard parameters modestly improved predictive accuracy (concordance index 0.763 vs 0.754). Significant parameters in the models were preoperative PSA, pathological Gleason score, extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, time to PCa BCR, PSA level at PCa BCR, and PSADT (all p < 0.05). Conclusions We constructed and validated a nomogram to predict the risk of PCSM at 10 yr among men with PCa BCR after radical prostatectomy. The nomogram may be used for patient counseling and the design of clinical trials for PCa. Patient summary For men with biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy, we have developed a model to predict the long-term risk of death from prostate cancer. © 2014 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: adult; aged; middle aged; cancer surgery; major clinical study; cancer localization; validation process; cancer patient; follow up; prostate specific antigen; cancer mortality; risk assessment; prostate cancer; gleason score; prostatic neoplasms; prostatectomy; seminal vesicle; biochemical recurrence; nomogram; patient counseling; statistical models; tumor invasion; very elderly; human; male; priority journal; article; high volume hospital
Journal Title: European Urology
Volume: 67
Issue: 6
ISSN: 0302-2838
Publisher: Elsevier Science, Inc.  
Date Published: 2015-06-01
Start Page: 1160
End Page: 1167
Language: English
DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2014.09.019
PROVIDER: scopus
PUBMED: 25301759
PMCID: PMC4779062
DOI/URL:
Notes: Export Date: 3 June 2015 -- Source: Scopus
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MSK Authors
  1. Peter T Scardino
    622 Scardino
  2. Andrew J Vickers
    569 Vickers
  3. Shaheen Riadh Alanee
    11 Alanee