Abstract: |
OBJECTIVES: • To validate previously published nomograms for predicting insignificant prostate cancer (PCa) that incorporate clinical data, percentage of biopsy cores positive (%BC+) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or MRI/MR spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) results. • We also designed new nomogram models incorporating magnetic resonance results and clinical data without detailed biopsy data. Nomograms for predicting insignificant PCa can help physicians counsel patients with clinically low-risk disease who are choosing between active surveillance and definitive therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: • In total, 181 low-risk PCa patients (clinical stage T1c-T2a, prostate-specific antigen level <10 ng/mL, biopsy Gleason score of 6) had MRI/MRSI before surgery. • For MRI and MRI/MRSI, the probability of insignificant PCa was recorded prospectively and independently by two radiologists on a scale from 0 (definitely insignificant) to 3 (definitely significant PCa). • Insignificant PCa was defined on surgical pathology. • There were four models incorporating MRI or MRI/MRSI and clinical data with and without %BC+ that were compared with a base clinical model without %BC and a more comprehensive clinical model with %BC+. Prediction accuracy was assessed using areas under receiver-operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: • At pathology, 27% of patients had insignificant PCa, and the Gleason score was upgraded in 56.4% of patients. • For both readers, all magnetic resonance models performed significantly better than the base clinical model (P ≤ 0.05 for all) and similarly to the more comprehensive clinical model. CONCLUSIONS: • Existing models incorporating magnetic resonance data, clinical data and %BC+ for predicting the probability of insignificant PCa were validated. • All MR-inclusive models performed significantly better than the base clinical model. © 2011 The Authors BJU International © 2011 BJU International. |