Dynamic prognostication using conditional survival estimates Journal Article


Authors: Zabor, E. C.; Gonen, M.; Chapman, P. B.; Panageas, K. S.
Article Title: Dynamic prognostication using conditional survival estimates
Abstract: Measures of prognosis are typically estimated from the time of diagnosis. However, these estimates become less relevant as the time from diagnosis increases for a patient. Conditional survival measures the probability that a cancer patient will survive some additional number of years, given that the patient has already survived for a certain number of years. In the current study, the authors analyzed data regarding patients with stage III melanoma to demonstrate that survival estimates from the time of diagnosis underestimate long-term survival as the patient is followed over time. The probability of surviving to year 5 for patients at the time of presentation compared with patients who had already survived for 4 years increased from 72% to 95%, 48% to 90%, and 29% to 86%, respectively, for patients with substage IIIA, IIIB, and IIIC disease. Considering the major role played by survival estimates during follow-up in patient counseling and the development of survivorship programs, the authors strongly recommend the routine use of conditional survival estimates. Cancer 2013;119:3589-3592. © 2013 American Cancer Society.
Keywords: melanoma; survivorship; patient counseling; conditional survival
Journal Title: Cancer
Volume: 119
Issue: 20
ISSN: 0008-543X
Publisher: Wiley Blackwell  
Date Published: 2013-10-15
Start Page: 3589
End Page: 3592
Language: English
DOI: 10.1002/cncr.28273
PROVIDER: scopus
PUBMED: 23913639
DOI/URL:
Notes: --- - "Export Date: 1 November 2013" - "CODEN: CANCA" - "Source: Scopus"
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MSK Authors
  1. Mithat Gonen
    716 Gonen
  2. Emily Craig Zabor
    131 Zabor
  3. Paul Chapman
    252 Chapman
  4. Katherine S Panageas
    331 Panageas