Synapse - Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to long-term survivors

Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to long-term survivors Journal Article

Authors:	Kahn, R.; Filippova, O.; Gordhandas, S.; An, A.; Straubhar, A. M.; Zivanovic, O.; Gardner, G. J.; O'Cearbhaill, R. E.; Tew, W. P.; Grisham, R. N.; Sonoda, Y.; Long Roche, K.; Abu-Rustum, N. R.; Chi, D. S.
Article Title:	Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to long-term survivors
Abstract:	Objectives: We assessed a conditional probability of survival (CPS) model to determine the probability of living 10 years after ovarian cancer diagnosis after having already survived 5 years. Methods: We identified patients newly diagnosed with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer from 1/1/2001–12/31/2009 and treated at our institution. Patients with <3 years follow-up were excluded. CPS was defined as the probability of surviving additional years (y) based on the condition a patient had already survived a given time (x): S(x + y)/S(x). Confidence intervals were estimated using a variation of Greenwood's formula. Results: Of 916 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 473 (52%) were diagnosed from 2001 to 2005 and 443 (48%) from 2006 to 2009. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years (range, 25–95). The conventional 10-year OS rate for all patients was 29% (95% CI: 26%–32%)—75% (95% CI: 68%–82%) for stage I/II disease, 22% (95% CI: 19%–26%) for stage III, and 6.9% (95% CI: 3.9%–12%) for stage IV. For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors was 65% (95% CI: 59%–70%); for those ≥65 years, it was 48% (95% CI: 38%–57%). For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors by stage was: stage I/II, 89% (95% CI: 81%–94%); stage III, 58% (95% CI: 50%–66%); and stage IV, 26% (95% CI: 12%–42%). For patients ≥65 years, rates by stage were 78% (95% CI: 53%–91%), 42% (95% CI: 30%–53%), and 29% (95% CI: 7%–56%), respectively. Conclusions: For long-term survivors with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer, CPS provides better prediction of survival than conventional methods. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.
Keywords:	adult; cancer survival; controlled study; human tissue; aged; survival rate; major clinical study; overall survival; cancer staging; follow up; antineoplastic agent; cancer diagnosis; cancer grading; ovarian cancer; cytoreductive surgery; retrospective study; histology; cancer survivor; ovary carcinoma; neoadjuvant chemotherapy; uterine tube carcinoma; international federation of gynecology and obstetrics; long term survival; survival outcomes; primary peritoneal carcinoma; very elderly; human; female; article; conditional probability of survival
Journal Title:	Gynecologic Oncology
Volume:	169
ISSN:	0090-8258
Publisher:	Elsevier Inc.
Date Published:	2023-02-01
Start Page:	85
End Page:	90
Language:	English
DOI:	10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030
PUBMED:	36521353
PROVIDER:	scopus
PMCID:	PMC10364188
DOI/URL:	https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85144978827&doi=10.1016%2fj.ygyno.2022.11.030&partnerID=40&md5=68d9efb47c18064acdcfa75172cab593
Notes:	The MSK Cancer Center Support Grant (P30 CA008748) is acknowledged in the PDF -- Corresponding author is MSK author: Dennis S. Chi -- Source: Scopus