Pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity and doubling time are associated with outcome but neither improves prediction of outcome beyond pretreatment PSA alone in patients treated with radical prostatectomy Journal Article


Authors: O'brien, M. F.; Cronin, A. M.; Fearn, P. A.; Smith, B.; Stasi, J.; Guillonneau, B.; Scardino, P. T.; Eastham, J. A.; Vickers, A. J.; Lilja, H.
Article Title: Pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity and doubling time are associated with outcome but neither improves prediction of outcome beyond pretreatment PSA alone in patients treated with radical prostatectomy
Abstract: Purpose: Controversy exists as to whether current pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) dynamics enhance outcome prediction in patients undergoing treatment for prostate cancer. We assessed whether pretreatment PSA velocity (PSAV) or doubling time (PSADT) predicted outcome in men undergoing radical prostatectomy and whether any definition enhanced accuracy of an outcome prediction model. Patients and Methods: The cohort included 2,938 patients with two or more PSA values before radical prostatectomy. Biochemical recurrence (BCR) occurred in 384 patients, and metastases occurred in 63 patients. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 2.1 years. We used univariate Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate associations between published definitions of PSADT and PSAV with BCR and metastasis. Predictive accuracy was assessed using the concordance index. Results: On univariate analysis, two of 12 PSADT and four of 10 PSAV definitions were univariately associated with both BCR and metastasis (P < .05). One PSADT and one PSAV definition had a higher predictive accuracy for BCR over PSA alone, and four PSAV definitions improved prediction of metastasis. However, the improvements in predictive accuracy were small, associated with wide CIs, and markedly reduced if additional predictors of stage and grade were included alongside PSA. Modeling with random variables suggests that similar results would be expected by chance. Conclusion: We found no clear evidence that any definition of PSA dynamics substantially enhances the predictive accuracy of a single pretreatment PSA alone. © 2009 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.
Keywords: survival; adult; treatment outcome; aged; disease-free survival; middle aged; survival analysis; retrospective studies; major clinical study; mortality; cancer recurrence; cancer patient; disease free survival; preoperative care; cancer staging; follow up; methodology; neoplasm staging; cancer grading; sensitivity and specificity; prostate specific antigen; accuracy; metastasis; neoplasm recurrence, local; proportional hazards models; tumor markers, biological; cohort analysis; pathology; retrospective study; tumor marker; time; time factors; risk assessment; prostate cancer; cancer invasion; confidence interval; confidence intervals; prostate-specific antigen; prostatic neoplasms; blood; register; registries; proportional hazards model; probability; prostatectomy; tumor recurrence; prostate tumor; prediction and forecasting; predictive value of tests; neoplasm invasiveness; analysis of variance; velocity
Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Oncology
Volume: 27
Issue: 22
ISSN: 0732-183X
Publisher: American Society of Clinical Oncology  
Date Published: 2009-01-01
Start Page: 3591
End Page: 3597
Language: English
DOI: 10.1200/jco.2008.19.9794
PUBMED: 19506163
PROVIDER: scopus
PMCID: PMC2720078
DOI/URL:
Notes: --- - "Cited By (since 1996): 10" - "Export Date: 30 November 2010" - "CODEN: JCOND" - "Source: Scopus"
Altmetric Score
MSK Authors
  1. Peter T Scardino
    621 Scardino
  2. Hans Gosta Lilja
    286 Lilja
  3. Andrew J Vickers
    565 Vickers
  4. Matthew Francis O'Brien
    20 O'Brien
  5. Angel M Cronin
    145 Cronin
  6. James Eastham
    427 Eastham
  7. Jason Stasi
    25 Stasi
  8. Paul A Fearn
    58 Fearn
  9. Brandon Smith
    3 Smith