Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma - Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram Journal Article


Authors: Groot Koerkamp, B.; Wiggers, J. K.; Gonen, M.; Doussot, A.; Allen, P. J.; Besselink, M. G. H.; Blumgart, L. H.; Busch, O. R. C.; D'Angelica, M. I.; DeMatteo, R. P.; Gouma, D. J.; Kingham, T. P.; Van Gulik, T. M.; Jarnagin, W. R.
Article Title: Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma - Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram
Abstract: Background: The objective of this study was to derive and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) after a curative intent resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC). Patients and methods: A nomogram was developed from 173 patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), New York, USA. The nomogram was externally validated in 133 patients treated at the Academic Medical Center (AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Prognostic accuracy was assessed with concordance estimates and calibration, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. The nomogram will be available as web-based calculator at mskcc.org/nomograms. Results: For all 306 patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 40 months and the median DSS 41 months. Median follow-up for patients alive at last follow-up was 48 months. Lymph node involvement, resection margin status, and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors in the derivation cohort (MSKCC). A nomogram with these prognostic factors had a concordance index of 0.73 compared with 0.66 for the AJCC staging system. In the validation cohort (AMC), the concordance index was 0.72, compared with 0.60 for the AJCC staging system. Calibration was good in the derivation cohort; in the validation cohort patients had a better median DSS than predicted by the model. Conclusions: The proposed nomogram to predict DSS after curative intent resection of PHC had a better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC staging system. Calibration was suboptimal because DSS differed between the two institutions. The nomogram can inform patients and physicians, guide shared decision making for adjuvant therapy, and stratify patients in future randomized, controlled trials. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved.
Keywords: survival; adult; cancer survival; controlled study; aged; cancer surgery; major clinical study; overall survival; postoperative period; cancer adjuvant therapy; cancer radiotherapy; prospective study; medical decision making; practice guideline; validation study; cancer mortality; liver resection; bile duct carcinoma; cholangiocarcinoma; biliary tract drainage; disease specific survival; nomogram; lymphadenopathy; prognostic model; cancer prognosis; very elderly; human; male; female; priority journal; article; hemihepatectomy; perihilar cholangiocarcinoma
Journal Title: Annals of Oncology
Volume: 26
Issue: 9
ISSN: 0923-7534
Publisher: Oxford University Press  
Date Published: 2015-09-01
Start Page: 1930
End Page: 1935
Language: English
DOI: 10.1093/annonc/mdv279
PROVIDER: scopus
PUBMED: 26133967
PMCID: PMC4754626
DOI/URL:
Notes: Export Date: 2 October 2015 -- Source: Scopus
Altmetric Score
MSK Authors
  1. Leslie H Blumgart
    343 Blumgart
  2. Ronald P DeMatteo
    599 DeMatteo
  3. Mithat Gonen
    713 Gonen
  4. Peter Allen
    440 Allen
  5. William R Jarnagin
    590 Jarnagin
  6. T Peter Kingham
    288 Kingham
  7. Alexandre Florent Doussot
    15 Doussot