A validation of two preoperative nomograms predicting recurrence following radical prostatectomy in a cohort of European men Journal Article

  

Authors:	Graefen, M.; Karakiewicz, P. I.; Cagiannos, I.; Hammerer, P. G.; Haese, A.; Palisaar, J.; Fernandez, S.; Noldus, J.; Erbersdobler, A.; Huland, H.; Scardino, P. T.; Kattan, M. W.
Article Title:	A validation of two preoperative nomograms predicting recurrence following radical prostatectomy in a cohort of European men
Abstract:	Kattan et al. at Baylor College of Medicine and D'Amico et al. at Harvard Medical School have each developed preoperative nomograms for prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy based on readily available clinical variables. Calibration and validation of those tools was achieved using North American patient cohorts, and their validity has not yet been shown in patients from other continents. We investigated the predictive accuracy of these nomograms when applied to European men with localized prostate cancer. Clinical data from patients who underwent radical prostatectomy at the University-Hospital Hamburg and fitted the respective derivation criteria were used for external validation (n=1003 for the Kattan-Nomogram, n=932 men for the D'Amico-Nomogram). Nomogram predictions of the probability for 2-years and 5-years freedom from recurrence predicted by the D'Amico-Nomogram and the Kattan-Nomogram respectively were compared with actual follow-up. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was tested using areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves (AUC). The D'Amico-Nomogram AUC predicting 2-years probability of freedom from PSA recurrence was 0.80 vs. Kattan-Nomogram 5-years prediction with an AUC of 0.83. Using the 932 patients who exactly fit the derivation criteria of both nomograms, the predictive accuracy of the Kattan-Nomogram was 0.81. The superiority in predictive accuracy of the Kattan-Nomogram was statistically significant (p=0.0274) but of unclear clinical significance. The two nomograms predicted recurrence with similar accuracy when applied to men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer in Germany. The high predictive accuracy of both nomograms demonstrates that these predictive tools derived in the U.S. can be applied to non-U.S. patients. Copyright © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc.
Keywords:	adult; controlled study; aged; disease-free survival; major clinical study; disease course; cancer recurrence; disease free survival; cancer staging; follow up; follow-up studies; staging; neoplasm staging; reproducibility; prostate specific antigen; accuracy; reproducibility of results; cohort studies; statistics; cohort analysis; recurrence; pathology; prediction; time; time factors; prostate cancer; europe; prostate-specific antigen; prostatic neoplasms; blood; statistical analysis; probability; prostatectomy; disease progression; prostate tumor; prostate biopsy; scoring system; prediction and forecasting; predictive value of tests; recurrent disease; radical prostatectomy; kaplan meier method; nomogram; technique; germany; humans; prognosis; human; male; priority journal; article; support, non-u.s. gov't
Journal Title:	Urologic Oncology: Seminars and Original Investigations
Volume:	7
Issue:	4
ISSN:	1078-1439
Publisher:	Elsevier Inc.
Date Published:	2002-07-01
Start Page:	141
End Page:	146
Language:	English
DOI:	10.1016/s1078-1439(02)00177-1
PUBMED:	12474529
PROVIDER:	scopus
DOI/URL:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0035986535&partnerID=40&md5=0c17f8e4345ed65d40124232497463bd
Notes:	Export Date: 14 November 2014 -- Source: Scopus

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