| Abstract: |
Purpose: We designed mathematical models to describe and period. Treatment seemed to be most effective in terms of cell kill quantify the mechanisms and dynamics of minimal residual within the first 6 to 12 months. Regrowth rates were correlated disease (MRD) in order to better understand these MRD dy- with estimated initial residual disease, particularly in MRDnamics; inform future treatment design, including when to negative patients. Three-year model extrapolations of PFS were stop or change treatment; and extrapolate from current closely comparable with clinical trial data. progression-free survival (PFS) times to predict future PFS Conclusions: This model could provide early prediction of curves. PFS outcomes, which otherwise takes lengthy periods of time to Experimental Design: This study aims to model individual observe in clinical trials. Patients showing rapid rebound from sequential MRD data from phase III clinical trials (MAIA, low MRD values may benefit from adding another treatment CASTOR, and POLLUX) using previously developed mathe- before reaching progressive disease. The MRD analyses and rematical models, which will be modified as needed to accurately sults presented, such as the results about efficacy occurring early reflect the actual MRD data. These models will then be used to in the first 6 to 12 months, may help guide the development and project PFS curves into the future. selection of optimal regimens. Longer follow-up periods and Results: Patients with low MRD values either showed rapid application to other trials and datasets are required to substandisease regrowth, or the MRD values remained low for a prolonged tiate these findings. ©2025 The Authors; |
