Accuracy of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium model among women with LCIS Journal Article
| Authors: | Eroglu, I.; Sevilimedu, V.; Park, A.; King, T. A.; Pilewskie, M. L. |
| Article Title: | Accuracy of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium model among women with LCIS |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) model predicts risk of invasive breast cancer risk based on age, race, family history, breast density, and history of benign breast disease, including lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS). However, validation studies for this model included few women with LCIS. We sought to evaluate the accuracy of the BCSC model among this cohort. Methods: Women with LCIS diagnosed between 1983 and 2017 were identified from a prospectively maintained database. The BCSC score was calculated; those with prior breast cancer, unknown breast density, age < 35 years or > 74 years, or with history of chemoprevention use were excluded. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate incidence rates. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to analyze the discriminative capacity of the model. Results: 1302 women with LCIS were included. At a median follow-up of 7 years, 152 women (12%) developed invasive cancer (6 with bilateral disease). Cumulative incidences of invasive breast cancer were 7.1% (95% CI 5.6–8.7) and 13.3% (95% CI 10.9–15.6), respectively, and the median BCSC risk scores were 4.9 and 10.4, respectively, at 5 and 10 years. The median 10-year BCSC score was significantly lower than the 10–year Tyrer-Cuzick score (10.4 vs 20.8, p < 0.001). The ROC curve scores (AUC) for BCSC at 5 and 10 years were 0.59 (95% CI 0.52–0.66) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.52–0.64), respectively. Conclusion: The BCSC model has moderate accuracy in predicting invasive breast cancer risk among women with LCIS with fair discrimination for risk prediction between individuals. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. |
| Keywords: | adult; controlled study; aged; major clinical study; cancer risk; cancer patient; follow up; follow-up studies; cancer incidence; prospective study; breast cancer; pathology; breast neoplasms; retrospective study; prediction; confidence interval; breast tumor; carcinoma in situ; kaplan meier method; model; receiver operating characteristic; lobular carcinoma in situ; carcinoma, lobular; diagnostic test accuracy study; breast density; lobular carcinoma; risk prediction; invasive breast cancer; humans; human; female; article; breast carcinoma in situ; lobular carcinoma in situ (lcis); breast cancer surveillance consortium (bcsc) model; breast cancer surveillance consortium model |
| Journal Title: | Breast Cancer Research and Treatment |
| Volume: | 194 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| ISSN: | 0167-6806 |
| Publisher: | Springer |
| Date Published: | 2022-07-01 |
| Start Page: | 257 |
| End Page: | 264 |
| Language: | English |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10549-021-06499-8 |
| PUBMED: | 35595928 |
| PROVIDER: | scopus |
| PMCID: | PMC10229518 |
| DOI/URL: | |
| Notes: | Article -- Export Date: 1 August 2022 -- Source: Scopus |
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