Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases; An international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment Journal Article

   

Authors:	Buisman, F. E.; Giardiello, D.; Kemeny, N. E.; Steyerberg, E. W.; Höppener, D. J.; Galjart, B.; Nierop, P. M. H.; Balachandran, V. P.; Cercek, A.; Drebin, J. A.; Gönen, M.; Jarnagin, W. R.; Kingham, T. P.; Vermeulen, P. B.; Wei, A. C.; Grünhagen, D. J.; Verhoef, C.; D'Angelica, M. I.; Koerkamp, B. G.
Article Title:	Predicting 10-year survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases; An international study including biomarkers and perioperative treatment
Abstract:	Background: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics. Methods: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992–2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities. Results: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29–32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%. Conclusions: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers. © 2022 The Author(s)
Keywords:	biomarkers; prediction; prognostic factors; colorectal liver metastases
Journal Title:	European Journal of Cancer
Volume:	168
ISSN:	0959-8049
Publisher:	Elsevier Inc.
Date Published:	2022-06-01
Start Page:	25
End Page:	33
Language:	English
DOI:	10.1016/j.ejca.2022.01.012
PROVIDER:	scopus
PUBMED:	35430383
PMCID:	PMC9117473
DOI/URL:	https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85128209212&doi=10.1016%2fj.ejca.2022.01.012&partnerID=40&md5=a7499e1b3659fb25eea34da56cdd1cd8
Notes:	Article -- Export Date: 2 May 2022 -- Source: Scopus

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