Number needed to biopsy ratio and diagnostic accuracy for melanoma detection Journal Article


Authors: Marchetti, M. A.; Yu, A.; Nanda, J.; Tschandl, P.; Kittler, H.; Marghoob, A. A.; Halpern, A. C.; Dusza, S. W.
Article Title: Number needed to biopsy ratio and diagnostic accuracy for melanoma detection
Abstract: Background: The number needed to biopsy (NNB) ratio for melanoma diagnosis is calculated by dividing the total number of biopsies by the number of biopsied melanomas. It is the inverse of positive predictive value (PPV), which is calculated by dividing the number of biopsied melanomas by the total number of biopsies. NNB is increasingly used as a metric to compare the diagnostic accuracy of health care practitioners. Objective: To investigate the association of NNB with the standard statistical measures of sensitivity and specificity. Methods: We extracted published diagnostic accuracy data from 5 cross-sectional skin cancer reader studies (median [min-max] readers/study was 29 [8-511]). Because NNB is a ratio, we converted it to PPV. Results: Four studies showed no association and 1 showed a negative association between PPV and sensitivity. All 5 studies showed a positive association between PPV and specificity. Limitations: Reader study data. Conclusions: An individual health care practitioner with a lower NNB is likely to have a higher specificity than one with a higher NNB, assuming they practice under similar conditions; no conclusions can be made about their relative sensitivities. We advocate for additional research to define quality metrics for melanoma detection and caution when interpreting NNB. © 2020 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc.
Keywords: diagnostic accuracy; sensitivity and specificity; melanoma; basal cell carcinoma; skin biopsy; false negative result; oncological parameters; intraepithelial carcinoma; priority journal; article; melanoma positive predictive value; melanoma screening; melanoma sensitivity; melanoma specificity; nnb; number needed to biopsy; number needed to biopsy ratio
Journal Title: Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology
Volume: 83
Issue: 3
ISSN: 0190-9622
Publisher: Mosby Elsevier  
Date Published: 2020-09-01
Start Page: 780
End Page: 787
Language: English
DOI: 10.1016/j.jaad.2020.04.109
PROVIDER: scopus
PUBMED: 32360723
PMCID: PMC7484328
DOI/URL:
Notes: Article -- Export Date: 1 September 2020 -- Source: Scopus
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MSK Authors
  1. Allan C Halpern
    398 Halpern
  2. Stephen Dusza
    292 Dusza
  3. Ashfaq A Marghoob
    537 Marghoob
  4. Michael Armando Marchetti
    156 Marchetti
  5. Japbani Nanda
    14 Nanda
  6. Ashley Yu
    2 Yu