Development and validation of a clinical score for cardiovascular risk stratification of long-term childhood cancer survivors Journal Article
| Authors: | Oikonomou, E. K.; Athanasopoulou, S. G.; Kampaktsis, P. N.; Kokkinidis, D. G.; Papanastasiou, C. A.; Feher, A.; Steingart, R. M.; Oeffinger, K. C.; Gupta, D. |
| Article Title: | Development and validation of a clinical score for cardiovascular risk stratification of long-term childhood cancer survivors |
| Abstract: | Background: Long-term childhood cancer survivors (CCS) are at increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events; however, there is a paucity of risk-stratification tools to identify those at higher-than-normal risk. Subjects, Materials, and Methods: This was a population-based study using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (1973–2013). Long-term CCS (age at diagnosis ≤19 years, survival ≥5 years) were followed up over a median time period of 12.3 (5–40.9) years. Independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality (CVM) were combined into a risk score, which was developed in a derivation set (n = 22,374), and validated in separate patient registries (n = 6,437). Results: In the derivation registries, older age at diagnosis (≥10 years vs. reference group of 1–5 years), male sex, non-white race, a history of lymphoma, and a history of radiation were independently associated with an increased risk of CVM among long-term CCS (p <.05). A risk score derived from this model (Childhood and Adolescence Cancer Survivor CardioVascular score [CHACS-CV], range: 0–8) showed good discrimination for CVM (Harrell's C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 0.73 [0.68–0.78], p <.001) and identified a high-risk group (CHACS-CV ≥6), with cumulative CVM incidence over 30 years of 6.0% (95% CI: 4.3%–8.1%) versus 2.6% (95% CI: 1.8%–3.7%), and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.5%–1.0%) in the mid- (CHACS-CV = 4–5) and low-risk groups (CHACS-CV ≤3), respectively (plog-rank <.001). In the validation set, the respective cumulative incidence rates were 4.7%, 3.1%, and 0.8% (plog-rank <.001). Conclusion: We propose a simple risk score that can be applied in everyday clinical practice to identify long-term CCS at increased cardiovascular risk, who may benefit from early cardiovascular screening, and risk-reduction strategies. Implications for Practice: Childhood cancer survivors (CCS) are known to be at increased cardiovascular risk. Currently available prognostic tools focus on treatment-related adverse events and late development of congestive heart failure, but there is no prognostic model to date to estimate the risk of cardiovascular mortality among long-term CCS. A simple clinical tool is proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification of long-term CCS based on easily obtainable information from their medical history. This scoring system may be used as a first-line screening tool to assist health care providers in identifying those who may benefit from closer follow-up and enable timely deployment of preventive strategies. © AlphaMed Press 2018 |
| Keywords: | mortality; cardiovascular risk; survivorship; childhood; cancer |
| Journal Title: | The Oncologist |
| Volume: | 23 |
| Issue: | 8 |
| ISSN: | 1083-7159 |
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
| Date Published: | 2018-08-01 |
| Start Page: | 965 |
| End Page: | 973 |
| Language: | English |
| DOI: | 10.1634/theoncologist.2017-0502 |
| PROVIDER: | scopus |
| PUBMED: | 29593100 |
| PMCID: | PMC6156177 |
| DOI/URL: | |
| Notes: | Article -- Export Date: 4 September 2018 -- Source: Scopus |
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